TowValue estimates what a truck might bring in the market using comparable advertised units. These are asking prices, not verified sold prices, appraisals or offers to buy. The model’s assumptions are provisional and need calibration against real completed deals.
Find the right working trucks
We start with active, priced listings of the same body type. When there are fewer than five, we also consider units delisted within the last 180 days. Blank asking prices never enter the math. A delisted listing is not proof of a sale.
Compare chassis, body and location
Each candidate receives a similarity score based on year, chassis class, body make, mileage, rollback bed length and region. Missing factors are skipped and the remaining weights are normalized. We retain up to 15 matches with a score of at least 0.35.
Adjust each asking price
We adjust for the subject truck’s year, mileage and body make. Mileage effects are capped at 25% of the original asking price. The similarity-weighted median gives a dealer asking value; an assumed 6% ask-to-sale discount then produces a retail estimate. Condition and title status adjust that estimate.
Show a range, not false precision
The range is at least 6% above and below the midpoint. Wider disagreement among comparisons widens it, up to 20%. We measure disagreement as half the weighted interquartile range divided by the weighted median adjusted price. All values round to the nearest $500. Trade-in estimates use 82% of retail; private-party estimates use 92%.
Say how much evidence we have
High confidence means at least eight matching units and a spread no greater than 12%. Four to seven units, or wider disagreement, gives medium confidence. Fewer than four gives low confidence. Low-confidence heavy wreckers and rotators go to a specialist instead of receiving a numeric estimate.
Explain what moves the number
For each driver, we recalculate with one detail replaced by the comparison pool’s median or most common value. Condition and title use good and clean as reference points because listing exports do not contain those fields. Driver effects are independent; they are not a sum of adjustments.
Read listing time carefully
“Typical days to sell” is a proxy: the median time from first seen to last seen or delisting. An active truck may not have sold, and the source’s observation period may be shorter than its true time on the market. A zero means the listing has only been observed on one day.
Use this as a starting point
Mechanical condition, hours, options, service records and local demand can materially change a real offer. Compare this range with an inspection and current written offers before making a decision.